Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/16/23

Avatar Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the present
Chip: Is Manoah cooked? He’s seemed fairly dangerous.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He seemed horrible final evening and his numbers this season are undeniably dangerous. Nevertheless, the man is 25 years outdated and was good final 12 months, so it appears a bit early to begin declaring him cooked. Clearly, he and the Jays want to sort things. For now, he’s taken a detour off the highway to success, not not like dozens upon dozens of different pitchers in baseball historical past.
Visitor: The place do you suppose Satchel Paige ranks among the many greatest pitchers of all time?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s not possible to know however I choose to suppose that he’s simply someplace within the high 5 or 10 of all time.
A Boy Named Yu: This query was much more related yesterday than at present what with the Soto article that was revealed at present, but when the Soto of the previous 12 months is the brand new Soto, does he nonetheless make the HOF?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s hit .239/.402/.445 which isn’t fairly however continues to be good for a 142 wRC+. I believe it’s value noting that the AVG and SLG have each lagged relative to his Statcast anticipated stats, together with this 12 months’s .260 xBA/.521 xSLG. I believe that’s ok to mission him to rebound and proceed progress in direction of Cooperstown
Mind Bruise ????: In case you are the Dodgers, how do you assist defend Will Smith for each the remainder of this 12 months and his profession? Being behind the plate is a brutal job
Avatar Jay Jaffe: In some unspecified time in the future, Smith might be going to wish to transition a few of his workload to DH or left subject or one thing like that (1B and RF not being choices given the long-term presences of Freddie and Mookie). There’s all the time threat in taking part in a man behind the plate however I believe the Dodgers did a superb job of treating his current scenario with warning; he handed a concussion take a look at however went on the IL based mostly on his signs.
Reader Plea: It feels such as you and the opposite FG facet writers are getting (or posting) much more fantasy questions this season. Is that true? It is a remark, however I actually want fantasy gamers would go to the RotoGraphs writers with fantasy questions and depart the common baseball inquiries to writers such as you. I’d a lot slightly get your experience on the HoF or one thing attention-grabbing in at present’s sport than the way you suppose a second division outfielder will carry out ROS.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I can’t communicate for others however I virtually by no means reply fantasy questions right here except I can deliver them again to the realm of non-fantasy stuff, and even then solely when I’ve a powerful desire and can provide a superb reply off the cuff. As you be aware, I’ve received different strengths, and I attempt to play to these on this chat.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: One factor I do attempt to fight that in all probability is extra fantasy associated is the notion {that a} participant is completed/cooked/washed. Manoah is an efficient instance — he might not assist your fantasy staff this 12 months based mostly on what we’ve seen, however the man has 1+ 12 months of service time and is 25 years outdated, no staff in its proper thoughts is giving up on him and anyone who thinks they might in all probability shouldn’t be allowed close to sharp objects.
Reds Enjoyer: Hunter Greene’s fastball has a run worth of +6 up to now this season. Long run, how do you suppose he can get higher worth out of a pitch he’s throwing greater than 50% of the time?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: i feel the brief reply is by creating a dependable third pitch. he’s thrown his changeup simply 5% of the time this 12 months, however that included a career-high 13 of them final evening in opposition to the Rockies. He’s very a lot nonetheless a piece in progress, but when he can get that changeup to look related sufficient to his fastball popping out of his hand, he may very well be onto one thing.
Sam: If Aaron Decide was wanting over on the dugout for indicators from his teammates – why is {that a} huge deal? Signal stealing’s nonetheless authorized, proper? If the Jays are tipping their pitches, why are they upset like they’ve been cheated?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The Astros’ sign-stealing scandal has understandably made each staff more and more paranoid (they have been already paranoid, therefore the spectrum of electronic-aided signal stealing that occurred as much as the banging on the can), so groups are hypersensitive about these things. They’e additionally engaged in headgames in opposition to their opponents, and loath to confess their very own wrongdoing, so they could nicely say issues like “they have been dishonest” to camouflage their very own sloppiness and even the truth that they’ve figured it out themselves.

If the Yankees picked up a inform within the indicators however weren’t utilizing digital means to take action, that’s permissible

Avatar Jay Jaffe: I assumed the Cespedes BBQ thread coated this nicely. Begin right here

My boring tackle this:
1. Don’t suppose Decide was indicators. Visible cue from the dugout is wild, there’s a motive HOU was banging cans.
2. If he was getting indicators its not unlawful, so long as Yanks aren’t utilizing tech.
3. Completely truthful for Jays broadcast to ask the questions.

Blue Jays announcers query the place Aaron Decide seemed earlier than mammoth HR ow.ly/m0rO104H2vG

16 Could 2023

The Batman: The Mariners are first in fWAR from their starters and second in fWAR from their relievers (though I imagine they have been first till a pair days in the past). Their offense is seventeenth, and very growth or bust. There’s an excellent staff right here if they’ll ever begin hitting. What do you suppose their path to that’s: hope for a return to life by Julio, Teoscar, and Geno; or get Dealer Jerry on the cellphone?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: They need to get these guys going, significantly Julio. All three are lagging significantly behind their xBA and xSLG so that you hope in some unspecified time in the future the hits begin falling in and the luck goes their approach. that stated, filling the outlet at second base the place what’s left of Kolten Wong must be a precedence in the event that they’re nonetheless in it in July, and likewise for locating a DH on condition that theirs have hit — and I take advantage of that time period loosely — .138/.226/.225 for a 32 wRC+ up to now
Pumpsie Inexperienced: At no level this season will the Mets have performed extra house video games than highway video games. Similar for the Blue Jays. Scheduling shenanigans, or simply trivia? But it surely should put on on the staff to defend their report with what looks like an excuse, although it’s a very actual motive for a worse-than-expected report – house profitable percentages are virtually all the time greater than highway.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Trivia. I don’t suppose the schedule makers have it out for anyone. In some unspecified time in the future you simply need to shut up and win, and because you’re going to wind up taking part in as many house video games as highway — and thus perhaps getting a slight benefit afterward within the season to even issues out — this all fairly transient.
Mike M: Good piece concerning the Contemporary Prince of L.A.  I hope he makes the All-star staff this 12 months. Tony Gonsolin returned about the identical time, and that has additionally been enormous.  However sheesh they’ve 8 gamers with WRC+ over 100, so their hitting is okay.  If Syndergaard can enhance, then they need to have a stranglehold on the NL West.  You (like many others together with myself) had SD profitable the NL west this 12 months.  Have you ever modified your thoughts?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good level about Gonsolin, however on the opposite I don’t see a lot motive for religion in Syndergaard. As for the division title, ask me after I look into the Padres for a chunk later this week.
Tungsten Arm Ohtani: WAR definitely grew to become a much bigger consider HOF voting during the last decade. What do you see as the following “factor” to turn into a much bigger consider voting?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s going to take awhile however I believe as we get extra Statcast information, we’ll provide you with extra trusted defensive measures than those which are at the moment in use for HOF candidates.
Tungsten Arm Ohtani: Yea or nay on the brand new scheduling with extra interleague video games and extra journey?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Whoops didn’t discover i answered two in a row from the identical particular person. I’m a curmudgeon on these things, and suppose that the impact of the elevated quantity of journey through this new schedule has not been correctly accounted for — it could be one other issue within the elevated variety of arm accidents we’re seeing, a difficulty that’s generally being attributed to the pitch clock
Travis: Will Strider finish the season over 15k/9?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Colour me skeptical, as a result of he and the Braves are going to need to handle his workload leap from final 12 months’s 134 innings, and a method to try this is thru a extra environment friendly strategy than utilizing an MLB-high 4.38 pitches per plate look
Alberto: Something on Jake Bauers?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’m definitely maintaining a tally of him given the way in which the Yankees have struggled to seek out enhances to their huge weapons, however let’s wait till he’s received greater than 33 PA underneath his belt.
Dan: How dangerous does the Astros offseason look proper now? Overpaying for Rafael Montero whereas getting nothing out of Jose Abreu and Michael Brantley. Perhaps going a lot of the offseason and not using a GM was a foul thought.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Not making a big addition to the rotation to offset the lack of Verlander doesn’t look too sensible both, significantly given the lack of Luis Garcia to Tommy John surgical procedure. I wouldn’t depend them out, although; they’re going to get Altuve again quickly, they determine to get Bregman going, and so forth.
Maple Maddux: If wholesome, what are lifelike expectations for Mike Soroka? Rejoin the MLB staff by the ASB? Pitch 75-100 innings?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: That sounds about proper. I do know issues aren’t going nice for him in Gwinnett, although he has a 3.96 FIP to go together with his 5.47 ERA. The large drawback is that he’s not lacking many bats, even on condition that he’s a sinker/slider man
LFGM: The Mets have been mediocre at greatest this season.  The lineup is usually the identical as final season however Marte and Canha have been a lot worse.  They gained’t be a 100 sport win staff, however the place do you see them ending up this 12 months?  90+ wins nonetheless seemingly?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t say it’s seemingly anymore, although it stays attainable. They want each Scherzer and Verlander to be wholesome and efficient, if not Cy Younger contenders; up to now, one-quarter of the way in which via the season, they’ve gotten a internet of 0.3 WAR from the pair which is not a superb return on the $86.7 million the pair is being paid.
Alex: Let you know what, as a Rays fan I’d be a heck of much more frightened about all of those accidents if your entire AL didn’t make the playoffs.  Have they got sufficient of a cushion that they’ll spend the remainder of the season specializing in being wholesome in October?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: no. They’re in fine condition, eight video games forward of the sixth-best staff within the AL, however additionally they play in a division the place each staff is above .500, they usually’re simply 6-7 in opposition to the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles. Gonna need to slug it out higher within the division
Brett: Can anybody clarify Max Muncy’s excessive streaks? He bats .100 for 2 weeks, then torches the ball one other two, and so forth
Child: Talking of the HOF, what’s going to it seem like in 20 years on condition that now we begin speaking about guys’ “decline section” once they hit 30, versus a decade or so in the past when guys can be getting long-term contracts at age 33. Very robust to see these outdated benchmarks – 500 HR, 3000 Ok, and many others. – being reached with up to date growing older curves.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s a superb query given the dearth of gamers on the horizon for lots of the main milestones. We gained’t have as many “magic quantity” automated qualifiers within the close to future however I do count on guys like Harper, Machado, and Trout to get to 500 HR.
Mt Elden: Do you suppose Alex Bregman will ever recapture his celebrity kind from 2018-2019? He was nice final 12 months, however not what he was these seasons he was hitting for +30 homers
Avatar Jay Jaffe: the man had a 136 wRC+ and 5.5 WAR as lately as final 12 months, however he doesn’t hit the ball tremendously arduous, and so with a much less bouncy baseball i don’t suppose we’re gonna see one other 40-homer season out of him.
John Olerud’s Helmet: Hi there Mr Jay! Reward thee!! I’m certain that is partly my blind love of Mark Buehrle however how a lot better do you suppose he’d be in todays pitch clock period? He all the time pitched fast and now he wouldn’t have the batters capable of step out on him continuously. I’m not saying he’d be a HOFer however certainly he’d have a barely greater WAR atleast proper??
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I dunno, that appears to be a little bit of a leap. If each pitcher labored as quick as Buehrle, batters may be extra attuned to his rhythm and him him tougher, maybe.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t know whether or not that’s true or not however that’s my level: we are able to spin all of those unprovable theories in both course. Offers us one thing to argue about over beers, on the very least.
Jason: (Submitted earlier half too early) The place does Zac Gallen rank amongst beginning pitchers (not a fantasy baseball query)? I don’t imply essentially simply based mostly on this season, however at what stage do you understand him to be?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I believe he’s solidifying a spot among the many high 10 starters within the sport, perhaps even a shorter listing than that on condition that he’s wanting like a Cy Younger candidate.
Colton: Do you suppose the Cardinals shot themselves within the foot a bit free of charge company with the quantity of behind closed doorways conversations which have turn into public this 12 months?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t suppose they’ve carried out something to assist their trigger, that’s for certain. I believe a possible free agent would possibly very nicely take a look at the rotation and the focus of mid-30s expertise in Goldschmidt and Arenado and determine they may be higher off elsewhere — however then it’s additionally value remembering that the Cardinals don’t play within the deep finish of the pool, free agency-wise (the Contreras deal was a franchise report save for his or her re-up of Matt Holliday 10 years in the past). It’s not like the following $300 million participant or $200 million pitcher goes to select in opposition to them, it’s that they gained’t even put themselves into the dialog for his providers.
KM: What was Aaron Decide doing together with his eyeballs?
Avatar Jay Jaffe:
War2D2: the adjustments remodeled the offseason (pitch clock, shift ban, and many others) have been nominally made to encourage extra fan curiosity, significantly amongst youthful followers. Do you have got a really feel for what the early returns on the adjustments are? Have you ever heard from anybody “in business” in the event that they really feel it’s helped? Or is it extra “the video games are shorter, so individuals will come, Ray, individuals will come.”
crimson sox fan: Do you suppose Brayan Bello has the stuff to be an ace some day?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Appears to be a stretch to me, however nowadays, when participant growth is so malleable due to the suggestions provided by new applied sciences — pitch design, swing adjustments, all that — I wouldn’t depend him out. His prospect grades embrace three potential plus pitches, however the’s not there but. He’s received good velocity on his four-seam fastball however not a lot spin (sixth percentile), and each it and his sinker do get hit. The changeup appears to be one thing particular, and that’s an necessary constructing block.
Un-Locke St John: Are the Cardinals attempting to make use of psychological torture to enhance their efficiency?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: i choose to think about it as ham-handed makes an attempt at comedian misdirection
Pitcher accidents: Pitcher accidents are up. do you suppose the pitch clock is a significant component?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I definitely suppose it *may* be an element however correlation doesn’t assure causality.
Ross: What’s your stage of concern for Julio? He has been actually off all 12 months. Making horrible swing choices and chasing each low and away slider and up and in fastball off the plate.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: not very excessive. His chase, swing, and swinging strike charges are just about the identical as final 12 months, as are his xBA and xSLG, that regardless of him pulling the ball a lot much less and producing fewer grounders.

I’m wondering if he’s been getting an excessive amount of encouragement to vary — “use the entire subject extra,” and “elevate extra constantly” — when every little thing was working simply effective final 12 months.

Visitor: Ozzie Albies got here into this season saying he needed to try to go 40/40. But it surely’s Mid-may and he’s solely tried 1 SB. What provides?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I wish to go 40/40 and that i’m just one stolen base behind him!
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I actually don’t know what’s happening there however surprise if there’s one thing about his foot. The Braves are working nicely once they do run (29-for-34 in steals) however they’re a couple of makes an attempt under common relative to the opposite 29 groups.
Farhandrew Zaidman: Do you have got a transparent minimize favourite between OAA, DRS, and UZR? Or is it nonetheless a “take a look at all three for the entire image” sort deal?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: take a look at the entire image
Colton: Going together with the Syndergaard query; do you suppose they’ll eat the cash and transfer him to the ‘pen for Bobby Miller within the subsequent a number of weeks? Or does Miller have to attend for an damage to get the decision? Looks like he’d be an automated improve for them over Noah however it’s all the time robust to inform.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: My guess is that they purchase as a lot time with Syndergaard as attainable; he wasn’t horrible final evening and so I’d think about he’ll have a runway to construct upon that for awhile.
ScottSki45: We discuss gamers and even trailblazers however who’s your high Supervisor or Govt outdoors the Corridor?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: As for executives, it may be Beane, Epstein, or Cashman however it’s in all probability too early to shut the books on them. Brian Sabean? I’ve made the case for Buzzie Bavasi earlier than, and suppose he belongs. Heaps to select from.
Marshall: deGrom and Kershaw are almost the identical age. Who do you suppose places up extra rest-of-career WAR?
Avatar Jay Jaffe: deGrom however solely as a result of he’s underneath contract via 2027, and I count on we would not have greater than one other season from Kershaw after this one.
Avatar Jay Jaffe: okay of us, loads of good q nonetheless within the queue however the shoulder is beginning to present some put on, so I’m going to hit the showers. thanks a lot for stopping by, we’ll do it once more subsequent week.


Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior author for FanGraphs, the writer of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Rating) metric for Corridor of Fame evaluation. He based the Futility Infielder web site (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing author for Sports activities Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring visitor on MLB Community and a member of the BBWAA since 2011. Observe him on Twitter @jay_jaffe… and Mastodon @jay_jaffe.